Opinions matter

Markets don't exist

pacifier
With that title I just pulled the pacifier out of the mouths of many marketers...and many of them will start crying.

But smart business people know better. Compartmentalization is very fundamental human behavior, in our personal life and business. In business the definition of “The Market” is the currency that aims to provide quick answers to everyday questions. The problem with market categorizations is that they are often incorrect, irrelevant, stale and frankly, the antagonist of innovation.

Here is why:

1/ People buy products, markets don’t.
No matter what the scenario, in the end people (not businesses) make purchasing decisions. And since people are unique, so are their complex reasons to buy. A unique mix of psychographics and demographics aided by free-market access to the Internet further emphasizes the power of “You” over the power of “The Market”.

2/ Markets are bad type-castings.
Customer surveys show that the compelling-reasons-to-buy rarely match up with the predetermined definition of “The Market”. And since many purchasing decisions rely on factors unrelated to the product (such as budgets, approvals, personal relationships, operational planning, risk mitigation etc.) a prospect qualification or disqualification within that market means absolutely nothing.

3/ Market definitions are bad currencies.
Since there are no rules for defining markets and everyone gets to dream up their own, the value of that market definition is meaningless. Imagine the value of the dollar if everyone gets to define how much it is worth and print theirs at home. Market segmentation and negotiations on market positions with analysts further deflate the significance and trust in traditional market definitions.

4/ Time changes everything (but markets).
Market definitions (in technology) change slowly yet products that attract new buyers change quickly. That means the definition of “The Market” (to which much decision-making is attached) is always far behind the adoption rate of new products and therefor far behind the identification of a new set of buyers. The minute “The Market” is defined, it has become irrelevant and ripe for disruption.

So, where does that leave marketing? Is marketing dead?

No, but it is time for technology marketers to grow up. The pacifier is being replaced by something else. Something more substantial and meaningful. Food becomes the new pacifier and customers will be feeding it to you.

1/ Listen before you speak.
Literally. Forget about what you as the marketer think of the product, early-adopter purchasing decisions are much more valuable in determining how the product is perceived and received. The credibility of new customers counts, more so than the ability of a marketer to spin a story. Spend time with your VP of Sales, in online forums, setup a Google Alert and figure out how to market customer perception.

2/ Manage the promise.
Crucial to the impact of marketing is the credibility of the company promise. Marketing, and specifically Product Marketing is vital in establishing that the promise is fulfilled to the satisfaction of the customer. A few bad words from customers on the internet can cost the company millions of dollars to repair, if it can recover from it at all. So, it is important that the promise to customers does not consist of blatant lies, leads to frustration or bleeds hundreds of support calls. Manage the critical success factors of your promise.

3/ Enable the dialog.
Orchestrate the interaction between customers and prospects and be sure to listen in. They will give you the marketing messages that truly resonate - on a silver platter.

4/ Manage the conversion rate.
Getting crowds to listen or visit the company website is rather simple, getting them to buy the product is more difficult. The company is only measured on the latter and since marketing is usually the scape goat and the first to be questioned when results are down, implementing a mechanism that detects, manages and reports on conversion rates yields invaluable metrics for improvement.

As long as there is macro-economic benefit to using your product, marketing is a very straightforward process. It requires a new class of people that are not afraid to throw the old-class of market definitions overboard and focus on the extrapolation of existing sales success, by simply listening for and consistently reverberating an honest and effective marketing message.

As Don Draper, the biggest ad man at the Sterling Cooper Advertising Agency of the TV series Mad Men explains; I don’t tell stories - I sell product.

Domain expertise is over-rated

study
Last week I sat in at a VC panel and the general partners from a few early stage VC firms who agreed that founders should have deep and many years of domain expertise in the companies that they are investing in. I disagree.

For one, true disruptive innovation does not come from compliance to an existing market. Apple, as a pure technology company, has proven it does not need to be a content expert to take the music business for a spin, and a massive overhaul. Real innovation starts with a healthy skepticism about current markets and its tactics. Coming up with new approaches to make money, and fundamentally changing the workings of paralyzed markets, is what makes my heart tick.

In my career I've always taken the disruptive standpoint. I became one of the most successful media experts for Oracle, not because of my prior domain expertise: I had none, but because of my drive to disrupt and look at the issues from a different perspective, one that is not necessarily tied to common acceptance. Finding and believing in OuterBay Technologies when it was unpopular and (yet) unsuccessful and creating a new market segment no industry analyst had heard of and starting immergo video communications without prior video communications knowledge and signing up big brand customers like IDG, blowing existing 20 year old production companies away, are living proof of why domain expertise is over-rated. SoftKinetic, the company I just became the CEO of, enables the next disruption in home entertainment no-one has travelled before.

The right investments are those made into people with guts, who vow to change how markets work and create disruption that unleashes new money. As Einstein taught us early on: imagination is more important then knowledge.

The industry-analyst cookbook

I couldn't help but chuckle when I read today's updated report on the Secure Content Management (SCM) market by number-cruncher industry analyst IDC. Having dealt with some of the companies in the top ten of that report, I can tell you that the numbers they report to IDC are not only incorrect but paint a picture of growth and penetration that could not be farther from the truth.

Yet, investors and entrepreneurs use this data to engage in new ventures together. Business partners base their strategic picks on it. Customers bet their careers on it. Even the suppliers (of SCM solutions) use this data to prove to their business unit managers how much progress they've made; what was the last time you got away with writing your own report card?

The problem with the IDC analysis is that it pretends to show what the size of the market is, and the operators in it, by simply adding the sum of finagled realizations. But what about the size of the total addressable market? A top down analysis of the market means nothing if it doesn't intersect with a bottoms up analysis (how applicable this technology is to the market). How many computers could be protected with SCM versus how many are? Is the sum of realizations really equal to the sum of opportunities? I don't think so. There is plenty of opportunity for SCM vendors that think different.

So, not only does the analysis of the opportunity stink, the facts are doctored too. Let's be real, Secure Content Management is a bull market with room for 130 competing vendors, sounds like no-one has cracked the code yet. Entrepreneurs should approach security from a new perspective that crosses artificial boundaries defined by the major players, let us know if you need help.